據(jù)路透社(Reuters)報(bào)道，俄羅斯能源部長(zhǎng)亞歷山大?諾瓦克(Alexander Novak) 7月16日表示，全球石油需求將在下月大幅復(fù)蘇，與疫情流行前的全球需求水平相比，將上升至10%以內(nèi)。

諾瓦克說(shuō)，與病毒爆發(fā)前的需求水平相比，4月份的需求下降了25%，導(dǎo)致了世界范圍內(nèi)的大規(guī)模封鎖，包括世界上最大的兩個(gè)石油消費(fèi)國(guó)中國(guó)和美國(guó)。

昨日，歐佩克同意在8月1日放松過(guò)去幾個(gè)月的減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，預(yù)計(jì)需求將相應(yīng)改善。歐佩克將從5月、6月和7月970萬(wàn)桶/天的產(chǎn)量削減中減少200萬(wàn)桶/天的削減量。

然而，歐佩克警告說(shuō)有可能進(jìn)行另一波爆發(fā)的浪潮，特別是在美國(guó)將繼續(xù)削弱需求。

作為歐佩克+組織的一部分，俄羅斯發(fā)布了一份關(guān)于石油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的警告，稱歐佩克+成員國(guó)8月份增加的石油產(chǎn)量將用于每個(gè)國(guó)家的國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)，而不是出口。諾瓦克堅(jiān)稱，俄羅斯將有能力在8月份消耗任何額外的產(chǎn)量。

俄羅斯烏拉爾山脈現(xiàn)在的價(jià)格是1澳元。不過(guò)與到期日的布倫特原油相比存在50倍的溢價(jià)，因此俄羅斯可能會(huì)試圖出口這一級(jí)別的原油，以利用這一有利價(jià)差。

根據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署和美國(guó)石油協(xié)會(huì)提供的數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)于全球最明顯的以數(shù)據(jù)為主導(dǎo)的石油市場(chǎng)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，這是至關(guān)重要的。沙特阿拉伯6月出口下降，這使得美國(guó)本周的庫(kù)存有所減少。

歐佩克從8月份開(kāi)始增加產(chǎn)量，預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)到12月份。

趙斌 編譯自 Neftegaz.RU

原文如下：

A.Novak: Get ready for a significant uptick in crude oil demand

Global oil demand will recover significantly next month, climbing to be within 10% of the level that the world saw prior to the coronavirus pandemic, Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on July 16, according to Reuters.

That demand, according to Novak, was off by 25% in April, compared to demand levels before the virus hit, causing major lockdowns the world over - including the world’s top 2 oil consumers, China and the U.S. OPEC seems to agree.

Yesterday, OPEC agreed to relax on August 1 its production cuts that it had set for the last couple of months, with the anticipation that demand would improve accordingly. OPEC will reinstate 2 million barrels per day of oil production from its 9.7 million bpd that it had cut in May, June, and July.

OPEC cautioned, however, that another possible wave of the coronavirus - particularly in the United States - would continue to sap demand.

Russia, as part of the OPEC+ group, issued a caveat for the increase in oil production, stating that the additional oil produced by OPEC+ member countries in August would be consumed domestically by each country, and not exported. Novak insists that Russia will be able to consume any additional production for August.

Russian Urals is now trading at a $.50 premium to dated Brent, however, and so Russia could be tempted to export that grade in order to capitalize on the favorable differential.

For the world’s most visible data-dominated oil market, the United States, this is critical, with Saudi Arabia’s exports dropping off in June, which allowed US inventories to draw down this week, according to data provided by the EIA and API.

The increased OPEC+ production starting in August is expected to run through December.