據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站7月7日消息 美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）將2020年下半年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)期上調(diào)至每桶41美元，比EIA上月的預(yù)測(cè)高出4美元。

在其短期能源展望中，預(yù)計(jì)全球石油庫(kù)存將在下半年和明年全年繼續(xù)下降。

EIA在月報(bào)摘要中稱：“EIA預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月高庫(kù)存水平和剩余原油產(chǎn)能將限制價(jià)格上漲壓力，但隨著庫(kù)存下降到2021年，這些價(jià)格上漲壓力將增加?！?/span>

EIA預(yù)測(cè)全球液體燃料庫(kù)存在2020年上半年將以670萬(wàn)桶/日的速度增長(zhǎng)，然后在2020年下半年以330萬(wàn)桶/日的速度下降。最后，在2021年，EIA預(yù)計(jì)庫(kù)存將進(jìn)一步下降110萬(wàn)桶/日。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，今明兩年美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量將下降，WTI價(jià)格將在明年保持在每桶50美元以下。EIA的預(yù)期是，美國(guó)今年的石油平均日產(chǎn)量將為1160萬(wàn)桶，明年將為1100萬(wàn)桶/日，與去年平均1220萬(wàn)桶/日相比有所下降。EIA預(yù)計(jì)，從2019年起，美國(guó)液體燃料消耗量將平均下降210萬(wàn)桶/日，至1830萬(wàn)桶/日。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

EIA Raises Brent Crude Oil Price Outlook

The Energy Information Administration raised its price outlook for Brent crude to $41 per barrel for the second half of 2020—this is $4 per barrel higher than the EIA’s forecast last month.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook expectation that global oil inventories will continue to decline in the second half of the year and throughout next year.

“EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase,” the EIA said in a summary of its monthly report.

Specifically, the EIA is forecasting that global liquid fuel inventories will rise at a rate of 6.7 million bpd in H1 2020, and then decline at a rate of 3.3 million bpd in H2 2020. Finally, in 2021, the EIA expects that inventories will decline further by 1.1 million bpd.

The EIA expects U.S. oil production to fall this year and next, with WTI prices sitting below $50 per barrel through next year. The EIA’s expectation is that oil production in the United States will average 11.6 million barrels per day this year, and 11.0 million bpd next year. This is off from an average of 12.2 million bpd last year. The EIA expects U.S. liquid fuels consumption to fall this year by an average of 2.1 million bpd from 2019, to 18.3 million bpd.